All bets are off on conclave outcome, says Vatican expert

The identity of the next pope is “totally unpredictable”, a Vatican expert said, adding that the timely release of the film Conclave has likely sparked the public’s interest in the centuries-old process.

Cardinals will gather to vote for Pope Francis’s successor at the behind-closed-doors meeting, known as conclave, following nine days of mourning.

As the first of official mourning day begins with Saturday’s funeral, it is thought they could meet officially on May 5.

UK theologian Professor Anna Rowlands said the timing of the star-studded Conclave film, released late last year, “couldn’t be more powerful”.

Prof Rowlands, originally from Manchester but now based in Durham, spent two years seconded to the Vatican during Francis’s papacy.

She said the Hollywood dramatisation, starring household names including Ralph Fiennes and Stanley Tucci, has shone a spotlight on the events ahead.

Speaking in Rome, she told the PA news agency: “The timing of the film Conclave, even though obviously it is a fictional representation, the timing couldn’t be more powerful.

“I think people do have some sense that something big and momentous and dramatic will happen at the heart of the Catholic Church and here in Rome in the coming weeks.”

But she cautioned that while there are factual elements to the film, it is ultimately a drama created for entertainment.

Of the film, the professor of Catholic social thought and practice at Durham University, said: “Lots of it is based on reality, liturgies and rituals and the things that do happen.

“We’ve seen that this week with the sealing of the papal apartment, with the announcement of the death and certainly, there are factual elements to that film.

“But I think perhaps what it doesn’t show quite so much is the reality of what really is happening in the Church of Pope Francis.”

She described a college of cardinals making up the conclave as being dominated by members chosen by Francis in his lifetime, 108 of 135, many of whom were people “from the peripheries”.

She said: “There are more African cardinals, there are more Asian Cardinals.

“There are more Cardinals from countries where we would expect cardinals to come from, but not necessarily the obvious candidates.

“So they are going to meet, some of them for the first time.

“And, like any big grouping that has to form a relationship and bond of trust to make a really important decision, they’ve got to find a way to work together, to work on this really immense responsibility that they have set before them.”

Asked who is in the running to be the next pope, she said any predictions are currently based on “pure speculation”.

She said: “Genuinely nobody knows.

“It’s not an evasion of the question.

“I think all bets are off.

“And that’s partly because the process is genuinely both secret, so it happens in private, but also because the makeup of this College of Cardinals is very different from anyone that’s been here to elect a pope before.”

She added: “It’s going to be, I think, a surprise conclave, that is totally unpredictable at this point, but I think will produce, potentially, a really interesting candidate who possibly none of us will know.”

The UK has three cardinals who are eligible to vote, Archbishop of Westminster, Cardinal Vincent Nichols, Cardinal Timothy Radcliffe and Rome-based Cardinal Arthur Roche.

The cut-off for voting is a cardinal turning 80 years old.

Ireland has no voting cardinals in this conclave.